Russian forces are advancing in the country’s eastern regions, but the recent arrival of US arms could help turn the tide
It was a lovely evening in May. Daria Karpinska and her companions were gathered in a corner of a five-a-side pitch, engaged in a game of cards. Their school was situated nearby, with swifts returning to their village of Hrodivka, filling the sunny blue sky with their screeches.
Abruptly, the tranquility was shattered by a loud whoosh-whoosh noise, signaling the arrival of a Grad missile. This was followed by the booming sound of artillery. "It seems louder today compared to yesterday," remarked 14-year-old Karpinska in a matter-of-fact tone.
Fifteen kilometers away, across a picturesque landscape of greenery and blossom-white hues, marked by slag heaps and wheelhouses, the Russians were making advances. In February, they seized the city of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine. Last month, they launched a surprise offensive and took control of the small town of Ocheretyne, a vital railway junction.
In the past week, they had swiftly occupied neighboring villages. The frontline was inching closer to Hrodivka, a once serene community of 1,500 residents, now facing the threat of extinction.
The teenagers are getting ready to depart. "Last week, my family decided that it was time. We are getting our things together," stated Liza Shapovalava, who is 17 years old. Two years ago, she and her parents moved away following Vladimir Putin's extensive attack. Although they returned, they are now leaving again, possibly for good. Their belongings will be sent ahead. Shapovalava expressed her desire to study psychology at a university, possibly in Kyiv.
Maksim Chuprin, her classmate, added, "We are not pleased. Naturally, we want the Ukrainian army to succeed. However, I am a realist."
Similar to the adults, the students rely on Deep State, a frontline application that displays Russia's territorial gains. Further evidence is readily available: Russian bombs struck Hrodivka's community hall and shattered windows at their school.
The Kremlin asserts that the eastern regions of Ukraine are considered part of Russia's historical territory. Back in 2014, it annexed the major cities in the Donbas area, Donetsk and Luhansk. Fast forward to 2022, Russian forces have taken control of a significant portion of Luhansk province. One of the primary objectives of the Russian president's military campaign is to extend their reach to the administrative boundaries of Donetsk oblast.
This objective had appeared unattainable. However, at present, a series of Ukrainian garrison cities are suddenly facing danger as Russian combat units advance, with the support of planes dropping deadly glide bombs.
Putin's generals are employing traditional Soviet military strategies from the Second World War. They are attempting to encircle Ukrainian troops on multiple fronts.
The capture of Ocheretyne presents Moscow with intriguing possibilities. It can advance westward through Hrodivka towards the city of Pokrovsk, a crucial Ukrainian military base. Alternatively, its forces can move north. If Russia succeeds in seizing the city of Chasiv Yar, it can simultaneously make progress from the south, cutting off a significant portion of Ukrainian territory.
Currently, Ukraine is holding on in Chasiv Yar. Months of relentless bombardment have reduced its communist-era high-rise apartment buildings to charred remains. The Russian forces have reached the eastern outskirts of the city, and intense fighting persists.
If Chasiv Yar falls, Moscow can utilize this advantageous position to target a series of nearby Ukrainian military cities: Kostyantynivka, Kramatorsk, and Sloviansk. These cities are not only home to tens of thousands of civilians but also to numerous servicemen. The prospects for the Donbas region of Ukraine, in terms of returning to normalcy, are increasingly grim.
In a forest training camp, Lieutenant Andrii Todorov discussed Ukraine's recent setbacks. He mentioned that his "Rubizh" brigade, which is part of the National Guard, previously utilized American 120mm high-explosive M933A1 mortars. Lieutenant Todorov praised the mortars, stating that they were effective with a superior fuse. However, in June 2023, the supply of bombs was depleted, and no replacements have been received.
"We saved three of them for a specific target," he explained. He further stated, "My soldiers have not received any additional US ammunition. I am hopeful that we will receive some soon. We are making every effort to maintain our positions and defend the front line."
The six-month delay in US military aid, caused by pro-Moscow House Republicans in Washington, had severe consequences for Ukraine. This delay allowed Russia to seize the strategic advantage following the failure of Kyiv's counteroffensive last summer.
The initial shipments of new US military assistance have started to arrive in Ukraine as part of a $61 billion package. These shipments include artillery shells and long-range missiles, but it will take several weeks for the weapons and equipment to reach the front lines in significant quantities.
Volodymyr Cherniak, a captain in the National Guard, expressed concern over the slow movement of the Russians, emphasizing the need for support from Western nations to successfully defend positions. He highlighted the necessity of adequate ammunition, F-16 planes, and anti-aircraft systems to counter Russian fighter jets. Without such support, he described the current situation as nonsensical, with Ukrainian infantry facing Russian missiles.
A security official in Kyiv described the situation as very difficult but not catastrophic. Cherniak mentioned that the Russian army has increased drone production following their failed attempt to capture Kyiv in 2022. He noted that the Russians now possess significantly more first-person-view drones, which they utilize continuously, even during nighttime operations.
Cherniak also pointed out the challenges in supplying frontline positions and rotating troops due to the increased drone activity. He highlighted the Russian strategy of employing costly "meat assaults," sacrificing large numbers of men and armored vehicles. He characterized their tactics as simple, bloody, inhuman, yet effective.
In March, following the defeat in Avdiivka, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of Ukraine declared that defensive fortifications spanning 1,200 miles were being built throughout the nation.
Nevertheless, in Ocheretyne, Russian brigades managed to circumvent these newly established defenses, creating a small bulge in the front line. Cherniak acknowledged that his soldiers possessed expertise in laying minefields, but he pointed out that the Ukrainian military lacked the specialized engineering units employed by Russian forces to rapidly construct bunkers and trenches after advancing approximately every mile. "We are facing a shortage of personnel for such tasks," he lamented.
Cherniak mentioned that the Kremlin has long-term goals, not only in Europe but also beyond. He emphasized that the winners are the ones who shape history. If Russia succeeds in taking over Ukraine, in 20 years, it could be China and Russia dominating, rather than the US and UK. Some analysts are optimistic about Ukraine's future. According to Andriy Zagorodnyuk, Ukraine's former defense minister, the Donetsk region is not necessarily lost. The key factor is the timely arrival of equipment and ammunition. With the necessary supplies, Ukraine can effectively resist Russia and weaken its military capabilities.
He highlighted the significant impact of the US delivering long-range atomic missiles in April, which drastically altered the situation. He also predicted that Crimea, where Ukraine has utilized maritime drones against Russia's Black Sea fleet, would transition from being an asset to a liability.
In Hrodivka, the community school has remained closed for two years, resorting to virtual classes. Despite this, students still convene on the football field or relax in the playground near a cluster of purple lilies.
After concluding their card game, the students departed in a cloud of dust, riding mopeds and a lone bicycle in a line. They parked their vehicles outside the local store. The sound of artillery fire echoed in the background. "The future is uncertain. Our home may endure," remarked Shapovalava. "Or it may not. The situation here is reaching its conclusion."
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